Football · England Championship · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Derby vs Cardiff
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
Derby2.1
Cardiff1.33
1X2
Derby
Draw
Cardiff
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Derby
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Cardiff
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derby
1–1–4
Cardiff
(6 last)
- Cardiff2-1Derby
- Derby1-0Cardiff
- Derby0-1Cardiff
- Cardiff1-0Derby
- Cardiff4-0Derby
- Derby1-1Cardiff
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derby 1458 · Cardiff 1585
| Derby | Draw | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cardiff (rating 1458 vs 1585).
- H2H favours Cardiff: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derby | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 3.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 3.7 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 1–1–4 Cardiff
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/25 England Championship | Cardiff | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 14/09/24 England Championship | Derby | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cardiff |
| 07/05/22 England Championship | Derby | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cardiff |
| 01/03/22 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 02/03/21 England Championship | Cardiff | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Derby |
| 28/10/20 England Championship | Derby | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cardiff |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Stoke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Charlton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Lincoln City England EFL Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/08 | Rotherham UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Mansfield UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Valencia Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | SC Freiburg Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Cardiff
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Swindon England EFL Cup |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Roma Elite Club Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
5-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Cork City Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 6-1 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Midtjylland Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-3 | 4-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Reading England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 14/04 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derby vs Cardiff?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby win (53%). Probabilities: Derby 53%, draw 24%, Cardiff 22%.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Cardiff?
The model expects 3.43 goals (Derby 2.1 · Cardiff 1.33), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cardiff?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.