Football · England Championship · 22/08, 13:30
Prediction: Lincoln City vs Portsmouth
Team pages: Lincoln City · Portsmouth
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Lincoln City1.49
Portsmouth1.49
1X2
Lincoln City
Draw
Portsmouth
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lincoln City
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Portsmouth
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lincoln City
0–2–4
Portsmouth
(6 last)
- Lincoln City0-2Portsmouth
- Portsmouth2-1Lincoln City
- Lincoln City0-0Portsmouth
- Portsmouth0-0Lincoln City
- Portsmouth3-2Lincoln City
- Lincoln City0-3Portsmouth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lincoln City 1532 · Portsmouth 1468
| Lincoln City | Draw | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lincoln City (rating 1532 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Portsmouth: 4-2-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lincoln City | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lincoln City 0–2–4 Portsmouth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/24 England League 1 | Lincoln City | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Portsmouth |
| 23/09/23 England League 1 | Portsmouth | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Lincoln City |
| 18/02/23 England League 1 | Lincoln City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Portsmouth |
| 06/08/22 England League 1 | Portsmouth | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lincoln City |
| 15/04/22 England League 1 | Portsmouth | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Lincoln City |
| 23/11/21 England League 1 | Lincoln City | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Portsmouth |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Stoke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lincoln City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Derby England EFL Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Barnsley UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Doncaster UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Grimsby UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Leyton Orient UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Boston Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Port Vale England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Wycombe England League 1 |
2-0 | 4-3 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 21/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Portsmouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | QPR England Championship |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | West Ham England EFL Cup |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Darmstadt Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 29/07 | Farnborough UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Wycombe UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Bristol Rovers UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 15/07 | Aldershot UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Woking UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Stoke England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lincoln City vs Portsmouth?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lincoln City win (36%). Probabilities: Lincoln City 36%, draw 27%, Portsmouth 36%.
How many goals are expected in Lincoln City vs Portsmouth?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Lincoln City 1.49 · Portsmouth 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lincoln City vs Portsmouth?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.