Football · England Championship · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Southampton vs Stoke
Team pages: Southampton · Stoke
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Southampton1.74
Stoke1.03
1X2
Southampton
Draw
Stoke
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Southampton
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Stoke
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southampton
3–1–2
Stoke
(6 last)
- Stoke0-2Southampton
- Southampton1-2Stoke
- Southampton3-2Stoke
- Southampton0-1Stoke
- Stoke0-1Southampton
- Southampton0-0Stoke
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southampton 1576 · Stoke 1443
| Southampton | Draw | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1576 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Southampton: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southampton | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 6.2 | 3.1 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 3–1–2 Stoke
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England Championship | Stoke | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Southampton |
| 23/08/25 England Championship | Southampton | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 29/10/24 England EFL Cup | Southampton | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Stoke |
| 27/04/24 England Championship | Southampton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Stoke |
| 03/10/23 England Championship | Stoke | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Southampton |
| 03/03/18 England Premier League | Southampton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Stoke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Watford England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 08/08 | Colchester England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | SC Preussen Munster Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/07 | Eintracht Braunschweig Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Man City England FA Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Swansea England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Oldham England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Valencia Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | Everton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 10/07 | Braga Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 21/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Stoke?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (54%). Probabilities: Southampton 54%, draw 25%, Stoke 22%.
How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Stoke?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Southampton 1.74 · Stoke 1.03), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Stoke?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.