Football · England Championship · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Swansea vs Sheff Utd

Team pages: Swansea · Sheff Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Swansea1.54

Sheff Utd1.31

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Swansea Draw Sheff Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Swansea 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLWWLW

Sheff Utd 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Swansea 1–1–4 Sheff Utd (6 last)

Sheff Utd3-3Swansea
Swansea1-0Sheff Utd
Swansea1-2Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd1-0Swansea
Sheff Utd3-0Swansea
Swansea0-1Sheff Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swansea 1519 · Sheff Utd 1579

	Swansea	Draw	Sheff Utd
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheff Utd (rating 1519 vs 1579).
H2H favours Sheff Utd: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swansea	Sheff Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.48 ★
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.32
2	2.60 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +4’	2.45	3.40	2.60
13:20 +7’	2.25▼	3.30▼	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:19	2.59	3.39	2.71
10:36 +1’	2.46▼	3.39	2.87▲
13:23 +4’	2.48▲	3.33▼	2.89▲
17:55 +5’	2.48	3.32▼	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 1–1–4 Sheff Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England Championship	Sheff Utd	3-3 HT 1-1	Swansea
16/08/25 England Championship	Swansea	1-0 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd
21/01/25 England Championship	Swansea	1-2 HT 1-0	Sheff Utd
02/10/24 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Swansea
11/02/23 England Championship	Sheff Utd	3-0 HT 2-0	Swansea
13/09/22 England Championship	Swansea	0-1 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Bolton	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
8	Wolverhampton	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Sheff Utd	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	Burnley	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Cardiff	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Watford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	West Ham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Derby	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Lincoln City	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Norwich	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Preston	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Stoke	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
22	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
24	Southampton	0	0	0	0	0	0	-4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swansea	Sheff Utd
Birmingham	0-1 L	0-0 D
Bochum	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sheff Utd (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Swansea

LWDWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
08/08	Birmingham England EFL Cup	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
01/08	Leganes Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/07	Udinese Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
21/07	Bochum Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Holstein Kiel Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
02/05	Charlton England Championship	0-0	3-1	10	0	W
25/04	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
21/04	QPR England Championship	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/04	Southampton England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	5	L

Sheff Utd

LWWDWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
09/08	Mansfield England EFL Cup	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
01/08	Bochum Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
25/07	Rotherham UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	13	0	W
21/07	Huddersfield UK Friendlies	0-1	3-1	1	0	W
17/07	Levante Club Friendly List	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Chesterfield UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
04/07	Halifax UK Friendlies	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
02/05	Derby England Championship	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
25/04	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-3	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swansea vs Sheff Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Swansea win (41%). Probabilities: Swansea 41%, draw 28%, Sheff Utd 31%.

How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Sheff Utd?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Swansea 1.54 · Sheff Utd 1.31), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Swansea vs Sheff Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.