Football · England Championship · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Wrexham vs Watford

Team pages: Wrexham · Watford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Wrexham1.57

Watford1.1

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Wrexham Draw Watford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wrexham 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Watford 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Wrexham 0–1–1 Watford (2 last)

Watford3-1Wrexham
Wrexham2-2Watford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wrexham 1493 · Watford 1480

	Wrexham	Draw	Watford
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wrexham	Watford
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	3.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +8’	1.95	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wrexham 0–1–1 Watford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 England Championship	Watford	3-1 HT 2-0	Wrexham
13/12/25 England Championship	Wrexham	2-2 HT 1-2	Watford

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Bolton	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
8	Wolverhampton	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Sheff Utd	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	Burnley	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Cardiff	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Watford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	West Ham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Derby	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Lincoln City	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Norwich	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Preston	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Stoke	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
22	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
24	Southampton	0	0	0	0	0	0	-4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wrexham	Watford
Middlesbrough	0-1 L	1-5 L
Coventry	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wrexham (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wrexham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Middlesbrough England EFL Cup	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	Sunderland Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
30/07	Liverpool Elite Club Friendlies	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
26/07	Leeds Elite Club Friendlies	2-2	3-2	0	0	W
18/07	Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
11/07	Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
02/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-2	2-2	6	0	D
26/04	Coventry England Championship	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
21/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/04	Stoke England Championship	2-0	2-0	2	1	W

Watford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Southampton England Championship	2-0	2-1	4	9	W
08/08	Crawley Town England EFL Cup	0-0	1-0	12	5	W
29/07	Fiorentina Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
25/07	Hansa Rostock Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
14/07	Barnet UK Friendlies	1-1	2-2	2	0	D
11/07	Boreham Wood UK Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
02/05	Coventry England Championship	0-2	0-4	0	3	L
25/04	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
21/04	West Brom England Championship	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
18/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-2	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Watford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wrexham win (47%). Probabilities: Wrexham 47%, draw 27%, Watford 26%.

How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Watford?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Wrexham 1.57 · Watford 1.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Watford?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.