Football · England Championship · 01/09, 21:00

Prediction: Birmingham vs Southampton

Team pages: Birmingham · Southampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Birmingham1.51

Southampton1.43

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Birmingham Draw Southampton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Birmingham 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDDDW

Southampton 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDDLWW

Head-to-head

Birmingham 0–1–3 Southampton (4 last)

Birmingham1-1Southampton
Southampton3-1Birmingham
Birmingham3-4Southampton
Southampton3-1Birmingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham 1572 · Southampton 1600

	Birmingham	Draw	Southampton
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Southampton: 3-1-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham	Southampton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.4	2.6 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.49
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.36
2	2.88 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +3’	2.30	3.30	2.88
02:24 +5’	2.40▲	3.30	2.75▼
09:37 +1’	2.45▲	3.30	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +2’	2.43	3.35	2.94
02:26 +4’	2.46▲	3.36▲	2.90▼
09:37 +1’	2.49▲	3.36	2.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 0–1–3 Southampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/12/25 England Championship	Birmingham	1-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
06/12/25 England Championship	Southampton	3-1 HT 2-0	Birmingham
02/03/24 England Championship	Birmingham	3-4 HT 2-1	Southampton
28/10/23 England Championship	Southampton	3-1 HT 2-0	Birmingham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlton	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Wolverhampton	3	2	1	0	9	4	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	QPR	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
5	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
8	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
8	Watford	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
10	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Bolton	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
13	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
14	Sheff Utd	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
15	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
17	Lincoln City	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
18	Southampton	3	2	0	1	9	4	2
19	West Ham	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
20	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
21	Derby	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
22	Burnley	3	0	1	2	4	9	1
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	2	6	0
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	3	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birmingham	Southampton
Bristol City	2-2 D	2-2 D
Preston	2-1 W	3-1 W
Ipswich	1-2 L	2-2 D
Blackburn	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Birmingham

LLWDWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
22/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
15/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
02/05	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
25/04	Bristol City England Championship	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
22/04	Preston England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
18/04	Hull England Championship	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
12/04	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/04	Ipswich England Championship	1-2	1-2	4	2	L
03/04	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	0-1	9	1	L

Southampton

WWDDWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Millwall England Championship	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
22/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	3-1	4	8	W
16/08	Watford England Championship	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
12/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	8	D
09/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/05	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
28/04	Ipswich England Championship	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
21/04	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
18/04	Swansea England Championship	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/04	Blackburn England Championship	2-0	3-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs Southampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham win (38%). Probabilities: Birmingham 38%, draw 27%, Southampton 35%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Southampton?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Birmingham 1.51 · Southampton 1.43), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Southampton?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.