Football · England Championship · 09/09, 20:45
Prediction: Derby vs West Brom
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Derby1.26
West Brom1.34
1X2
Derby
Draw
West Brom
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Derby
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
West Brom
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derby
4–2–0
West Brom
(6 last)
- Derby1-1West Brom
- West Brom0-1Derby
- West Brom1-1Derby
- West Brom1-3Derby
- Derby2-1West Brom
- Derby1-0West Brom
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derby 1452 · West Brom 1563
| Derby | Draw | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Brom (rating 1452 vs 1563).
- H2H favours Derby: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derby | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 4–2–0 West Brom
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 England Championship | Derby | 1-1 HT 1-0 | West Brom |
| 13/09/25 England Championship | West Brom | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 12/08/25 England EFL Cup | West Brom | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 21/04/25 England Championship | West Brom | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Derby |
| 26/12/24 England Championship | Derby | 2-1 HT 1-0 | West Brom |
| 23/08/22 England EFL Cup | Derby | 1-0 HT 1-0 | West Brom |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | West Ham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Wrexham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Norwich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 13 | Stoke | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 | Watford | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 19 | Southampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Bolton | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 23 | Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derby | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Norwich | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: West Brom (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Charlton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
West Brom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 02/09 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Burnley England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/04 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 10/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derby vs West Brom?
According to our model, the most likely result is an West Brom win (38%). Probabilities: Derby 34%, draw 29%, West Brom 38%.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs West Brom?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Derby 1.26 · West Brom 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Derby vs West Brom?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.