Prediction: Norwich vs Birmingham
Team pages: Norwich · Birmingham
- Norwich1-2Birmingham
- Birmingham4-1Norwich
- Birmingham1-0Norwich
- Norwich2-0Birmingham
- Norwich3-1Birmingham
- Birmingham1-2Norwich
| Norwich | Draw | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1509 vs 1584).
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.1 | 3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norwich 3–0–3 Birmingham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England Championship | Norwich | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Birmingham |
| 22/11/25 England Championship | Birmingham | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Norwich |
| 04/05/24 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Norwich |
| 30/09/23 England Championship | Norwich | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Birmingham |
| 21/02/23 England Championship | Norwich | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Birmingham |
| 30/08/22 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Norwich |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | West Ham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Wrexham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Norwich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 13 | Stoke | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 | Watford | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 19 | Southampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Bolton | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 23 | Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norwich | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Hull | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Bristol City | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Norwich (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Burnley England Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | Derby England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 10 | L |
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Preston England Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Hull England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich vs Birmingham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich win (46%). Probabilities: Norwich 46%, draw 27%, Birmingham 27%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Birmingham?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Norwich 1.66 · Birmingham 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Birmingham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.