Football · England Championship · 08/09, 20:45
Prediction: Southampton vs Swansea
Team pages: Southampton · Swansea
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Southampton1.49
Swansea0.95
1X2
Southampton
Draw
Swansea
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Southampton
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Swansea
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southampton
4–2–0
Swansea
(6 last)
- Swansea1-2Southampton
- Southampton0-0Swansea
- Southampton3-0Swansea
- Swansea1-3Southampton
- Southampton5-0Swansea
- Swansea1-1Southampton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southampton 1583 · Swansea 1555
| Southampton | Draw | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Southampton: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southampton | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 6 | 1.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 4–2–0 Swansea
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England Championship | Swansea | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Southampton |
| 18/10/25 England Championship | Southampton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Swansea |
| 12/01/25 England FA Cup | Southampton | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Swansea |
| 20/01/24 England Championship | Swansea | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Southampton |
| 26/12/23 England Championship | Southampton | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 08/01/22 England FA Cup | Swansea | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Southampton |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | West Ham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Wrexham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Norwich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 13 | Stoke | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 | Watford | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 19 | Southampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Bolton | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 23 | Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southampton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Watford | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Millwall England Championship |
2-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | Watford England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 12/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Leicester England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Swansea?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (49%). Probabilities: Southampton 49%, draw 27%, Swansea 23%.
How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Swansea?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Southampton 1.49 · Swansea 0.95), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Swansea?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.