Football · England Championship · 01/09, 20:45

Prediction: Portsmouth vs Derby

Team pages: Portsmouth · Derby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Portsmouth1.39

Derby1.17

1X2

41% 29% 31%

Portsmouth Draw Derby

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Portsmouth 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDLWL

Derby 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLDL

Head-to-head

Portsmouth 0–4–2 Derby (6 last)

Portsmouth0-1Derby
Derby1-1Portsmouth
Portsmouth2-2Derby
Derby4-0Portsmouth
Portsmouth2-2Derby
Derby1-1Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portsmouth 1492 · Derby 1457

	Portsmouth	Draw	Derby
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	41%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Derby: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portsmouth	Derby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.26
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35
2	2.75 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.24 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +15’	2.45	3.20	2.75
02:25 +4’	2.25▼	3.20	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +2’	2.31	3.34	3.14
00:49 +5’	2.25▼	3.41▲	3.19▲
02:26 +4’	2.24▼	3.40▼	3.23▲
05:06 +3’	2.26▲	3.35▼	3.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portsmouth 0–4–2 Derby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 England Championship	Portsmouth	0-1 HT 0-1	Derby
20/12/25 England Championship	Derby	1-1 HT 1-1	Portsmouth
12/04/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	2-2 HT 0-0	Derby
13/12/24 England Championship	Derby	4-0 HT 3-0	Portsmouth
02/04/24 England League 1	Portsmouth	2-2 HT 1-2	Derby
16/09/23 England League 1	Derby	1-1 HT 0-0	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlton	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Wolverhampton	3	2	1	0	9	4	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	QPR	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
5	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
8	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
8	Watford	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
10	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Bolton	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
13	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
14	Sheff Utd	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
15	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
17	Lincoln City	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
18	Southampton	3	2	0	1	9	4	2
19	West Ham	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
20	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
21	Derby	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
22	Burnley	3	0	1	2	4	9	1
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	2	6	0
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	3	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portsmouth	Derby
QPR	1-3 L	3-2 W
Stoke	3-1 W	2-0 W
Coventry	1-5 L	2-3 L
Oxford Utd	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Derby (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portsmouth

DWWWLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
22/08	Lincoln City England Championship	2-1	3-1	3	4	W
15/08	QPR England Championship	1-3	1-3	6	1	L
02/05	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/04	Coventry England Championship	0-1	1-5	1	1	L
18/04	Leicester England Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
14/04	Ipswich England Championship	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
11/04	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	2-2	6	6	D

Derby

LWLWLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Swansea England Championship	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
22/08	Cardiff England Championship	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
15/08	Charlton England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
02/05	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
25/04	QPR England Championship	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
21/04	Norwich England Championship	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
18/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
11/04	Southampton England Championship	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
06/04	Stoke England Championship	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/04	Coventry England Championship	1-1	2-3	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Derby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portsmouth win (41%). Probabilities: Portsmouth 41%, draw 29%, Derby 31%.

How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Derby?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Portsmouth 1.39 · Derby 1.17), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.