Football · England Championship · 01/09, 20:45

Prediction: Preston vs Bristol City

Team pages: Preston · Bristol City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Preston1.32

Bristol City1.25

1X2

37% 28% 34%

Preston Draw Bristol City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Preston 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWLLLL

Bristol City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDLWLDW

Head-to-head

Preston 2–3–1 Bristol City (6 last)

Bristol City0-2Preston
Preston0-0Bristol City
Bristol City2-2Preston
Preston1-3Bristol City
Preston2-0Bristol City
Bristol City1-1Preston

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston 1415 · Bristol City 1492

	Preston	Draw	Bristol City
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol City (rating 1415 vs 1492).
H2H favours Preston: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston	Bristol City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.55
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.35
2	2.55 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.79 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +15’	2.55	3.25	2.55
22:06 +6’	2.55	3.25	2.50▼
02:24 +5’	2.40▼	3.25	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:09 +2’	2.56	3.35	2.77
02:26 +4’	2.54▼	3.35	2.80▲
14:20 +4’	2.55▲	3.35	2.79▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston 2–3–1 Bristol City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 England Championship	Bristol City	0-2 HT 0-1	Preston
27/09/25 England Championship	Preston	0-0 HT 0-0	Bristol City
03/05/25 England Championship	Bristol City	2-2 HT 0-1	Preston
02/11/24 England Championship	Preston	1-3 HT 0-1	Bristol City
13/01/24 England Championship	Preston	2-0 HT 0-0	Bristol City
05/08/23 England Championship	Bristol City	1-1 HT 0-0	Preston

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlton	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Wolverhampton	3	2	1	0	9	4	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	QPR	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
5	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
8	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
8	Watford	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
10	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Bolton	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
13	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
14	Sheff Utd	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
15	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
17	Lincoln City	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
18	Southampton	3	2	0	1	9	4	2
19	West Ham	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
20	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
21	Derby	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
22	Burnley	3	0	1	2	4	9	1
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	2	6	0
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	3	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston	Bristol City
Charlton	0-1 L	2-1 W
Southampton	1-3 L	2-2 D
Sheff Utd	3-2 W	1-0 W
Birmingham	1-2 L	2-2 D
QPR	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol City (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Preston

DDWLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
15/08	Bolton England Championship	0-2	1-2	2	5	L
02/05	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-3	10	4	L
25/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
22/04	Birmingham England Championship	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
18/04	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-2	8	0	L
11/04	Charlton England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
06/04	QPR England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/04	Leicester England Championship	2-1	2-2	2	4	D

Bristol City

WWDLDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/08	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/05	Stoke England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
25/04	Birmingham England Championship	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/04	Southampton England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
18/04	Norwich England Championship	1-0	2-4	2	2	L
11/04	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
03/04	Charlton England Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston vs Bristol City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston win (37%). Probabilities: Preston 37%, draw 28%, Bristol City 34%.

How many goals are expected in Preston vs Bristol City?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Preston 1.32 · Bristol City 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston vs Bristol City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.