Football · England Championship · 01/09, 21:00
Prediction: Stoke vs Norwich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Stoke1.17
Norwich1.36
1X2
Stoke
Draw
Norwich
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Stoke
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Norwich
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stoke
1–2–3
Norwich
(6 last)
- Norwich0-2Stoke
- Stoke1-1Norwich
- Norwich4-2Stoke
- Stoke1-1Norwich
- Stoke0-3Norwich
- Norwich1-0Stoke
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stoke 1442 · Norwich 1526
| Stoke | Draw | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norwich (rating 1442 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Norwich: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stoke | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.1 | 3.3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 1–2–3 Norwich
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 England Championship | Norwich | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 27/09/25 England Championship | Stoke | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Norwich |
| 22/02/25 England Championship | Norwich | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Stoke |
| 19/10/24 England Championship | Stoke | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Norwich |
| 16/03/24 England Championship | Stoke | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Norwich |
| 16/09/23 England Championship | Norwich | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Stoke |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Swansea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Millwall | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | West Brom | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Watford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Bolton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Sheff Utd | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Norwich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Portsmouth | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Southampton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | West Ham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 | Derby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 22 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 23 | Preston | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 | Stoke | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stoke | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Bristol City | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Portsmouth | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Millwall | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Derby | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 5 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Norwich (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Swansea England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 21/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/04 | Derby England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Burnley England Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | Derby England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 10 | L |
| 06/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Norwich?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Norwich win (41%). Probabilities: Stoke 32%, draw 28%, Norwich 41%.
How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Norwich?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Stoke 1.17 · Norwich 1.36), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Norwich?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.