Football · England Championship · 01/09, 20:45
Prediction: Swansea vs Watford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Swansea1.65
Watford1.07
1X2
Swansea
Draw
Watford
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Swansea
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Watford
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swansea
2–2–2
Watford
(6 last)
- Watford0-2Swansea
- Swansea1-1Watford
- Watford1-0Swansea
- Swansea1-0Watford
- Watford1-1Swansea
- Swansea0-1Watford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swansea 1555 · Watford 1443
| Swansea | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea (rating 1555 vs 1443).
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swansea | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 5.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 2–2–2 Watford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England Championship | Watford | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Swansea |
| 23/08/25 England Championship | Swansea | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Watford |
| 12/03/25 England Championship | Watford | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 05/11/24 England Championship | Swansea | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Watford |
| 06/03/24 England Championship | Watford | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Swansea |
| 24/10/23 England Championship | Swansea | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Watford |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Swansea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Millwall | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | West Brom | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Watford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Bolton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Sheff Utd | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Norwich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Portsmouth | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Southampton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | West Ham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 | Derby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 22 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 23 | Preston | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 | Stoke | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swansea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Charlton | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| QPR | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Southampton | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Middlesbrough | 2-2 D | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Swansea (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Leicester England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | D |
Watford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | West Ham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 16/08 | Southampton England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Coventry England Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/04 | West Brom England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 17 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | QPR England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swansea vs Watford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swansea win (50%). Probabilities: Swansea 50%, draw 26%, Watford 24%.
How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Watford?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Swansea 1.65 · Watford 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Watford?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.