Football · England Championship · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: QPR vs Middlesbrough

Team pages: QPR · Middlesbrough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

QPR1.28

Middlesbrough1.69

1X2

28% 27% 45%

QPR Draw Middlesbrough

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

QPR 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLLWDW

Middlesbrough 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDLWLW

Head-to-head

QPR 1–5 Middlesbrough (6 last)

QPR0-4Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough3-1QPR
Middlesbrough2-1QPR
QPR1-4Middlesbrough
QPR0-2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0-2QPR

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · QPR 1553 · Middlesbrough 1567

	QPR	Draw	Middlesbrough
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Middlesbrough: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	QPR	Middlesbrough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	3.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.30

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:58 +19’	3.40	3.30	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · QPR 1–0–5 Middlesbrough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 England Championship	QPR	0-4 HT 0-1	Middlesbrough
13/12/25 England Championship	Middlesbrough	3-1 HT 2-0	QPR
11/03/25 England Championship	Middlesbrough	2-1 HT 1-0	QPR
05/11/24 England Championship	QPR	1-4 HT 0-2	Middlesbrough
09/03/24 England Championship	QPR	0-2 HT 0-0	Middlesbrough
02/09/23 England Championship	Middlesbrough	0-2 HT 0-1	QPR

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlton	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Wolverhampton	3	2	1	0	9	4	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	QPR	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
5	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
8	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
8	Watford	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
10	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Bolton	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
13	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
14	Sheff Utd	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
15	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
17	Lincoln City	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
18	Southampton	3	2	0	1	9	4	2
19	West Ham	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
20	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
21	Derby	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
22	Burnley	3	0	1	2	4	9	1
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	2	6	0
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	3	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	QPR	Middlesbrough
Blackburn	2-1 W	1-2 L
Ipswich	0-3 L	2-2 D
Watford	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

QPR

WDDLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
22/08	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
15/08	Portsmouth England Championship	3-1	3-1	3	1	W
02/05	Ipswich England Championship	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
25/04	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-3	10	4	L
21/04	Swansea England Championship	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
18/04	Millwall England Championship	0-2	0-2	10	4	L
11/04	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
06/04	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
03/04	Watford England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	10	W

Middlesbrough

DWWDDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	West Brom England Championship	0-0	3-1	7	1	W
22/08	Blackburn England Championship	1-0	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
23/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
12/05	Southampton England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
09/05	Southampton England Championship	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
02/05	Wrexham England Championship	2-2	2-2	3	0	D
25/04	Watford England Championship	2-0	5-1	6	3	W
22/04	Sheff Wed England Championship	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
19/04	Ipswich England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in QPR vs Middlesbrough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough win (45%). Probabilities: QPR 28%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough 45%.

How many goals are expected in QPR vs Middlesbrough?

The model expects 2.97 goals (QPR 1.28 · Middlesbrough 1.69), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in QPR vs Middlesbrough?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.