Football · England Championship · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Blackburn vs Millwall

Team pages: Blackburn · Millwall

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Blackburn1.09

Millwall1.24

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Blackburn Draw Millwall

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Blackburn 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDWLDL

Millwall 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Blackburn 4–1–1 Millwall (6 last)

Millwall1-2Blackburn
Blackburn2-0Millwall
Blackburn4-1Millwall
Millwall1-0Blackburn
Blackburn1-1Millwall
Millwall1-2Blackburn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blackburn 1494 · Millwall 1515

	Blackburn	Draw	Millwall
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	32%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Blackburn: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blackburn	Millwall
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	3.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.25

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +9’	2.88	3.25	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blackburn 4–1–1 Millwall

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Championship	Millwall	1-2 HT 0-0	Blackburn
20/12/25 England Championship	Blackburn	2-0 HT 2-0	Millwall
18/04/25 England Championship	Blackburn	4-1 HT 2-1	Millwall
21/12/24 England Championship	Millwall	1-0 HT 0-0	Blackburn
05/03/24 England Championship	Blackburn	1-1 HT 0-0	Millwall
24/10/23 England Championship	Millwall	1-2 HT 1-1	Blackburn

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	5	3	2	0	7	1	11
2	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
3	QPR	5	3	1	1	7	4	10
4	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
5	West Brom	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
6	Charlton	5	3	1	1	6	7	10
7	Millwall	5	3	0	2	10	8	9
8	West Ham	5	2	2	1	11	7	8
9	Wolverhampton	5	2	2	1	13	10	8
10	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
11	Wrexham	5	1	3	1	6	4	6
12	Norwich	5	2	0	3	8	8	6
13	Stoke	5	2	0	3	8	9	6
14	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
15	Sheff Utd	5	1	3	1	6	7	6
16	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
17	Lincoln City	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
17	Watford	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
19	Southampton	5	2	2	1	11	6	4
20	Derby	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
21	Bolton	5	1	1	3	4	9	4
22	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	6	9	3
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	5	10	3
24	Burnley	5	0	2	3	6	12	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blackburn	Millwall
Leicester	0-1 L	1-1 D
Southampton	0-3 L	1-5 L
Stoke	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Millwall (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blackburn

DLDWLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	1-2	11	6	L
01/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
29/08	QPR England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
22/08	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
14/08	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
02/05	Leicester England Championship	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
22/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	3-0	3-1	4	6	W
17/04	Coventry England Championship	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
14/04	Southampton England Championship	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
11/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	1-1	3	8	D

Millwall

WDWDLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Bolton England Championship	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
02/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
29/08	Southampton England Championship	1-2	1-5	11	2	L
22/08	Norwich England Championship	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
15/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
08/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/05	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	2-0	14	1	W
24/04	Leicester England Championship	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
21/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blackburn vs Millwall?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Millwall win (39%). Probabilities: Blackburn 32%, draw 29%, Millwall 39%.

How many goals are expected in Blackburn vs Millwall?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Blackburn 1.09 · Millwall 1.24), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Millwall?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.