Football · England Championship · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Southampton vs Bristol City

Team pages: Southampton · Bristol City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Southampton2.04

Bristol City1.1

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Southampton Draw Bristol City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Southampton 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLWWDD

Bristol City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Southampton 1–1–2 Bristol City (4 last)

Southampton2-2Bristol City
Bristol City3-1Southampton
Bristol City3-1Southampton
Southampton1-0Bristol City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southampton 1577 · Bristol City 1518

	Southampton	Draw	Bristol City
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1577 vs 1518).
H2H favours Bristol City: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southampton	Bristol City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.05

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +1’	1.60	3.90	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 1–1–2 Bristol City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 England Championship	Southampton	2-2 HT 1-1	Bristol City
21/10/25 England Championship	Bristol City	3-1 HT 1-1	Southampton
13/02/24 England Championship	Bristol City	3-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
29/11/23 England Championship	Southampton	1-0 HT 0-0	Bristol City

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	5	3	2	0	7	1	11
2	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
3	QPR	5	3	1	1	7	4	10
4	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
5	West Brom	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
6	Charlton	5	3	1	1	6	7	10
7	Millwall	5	3	0	2	10	8	9
8	West Ham	5	2	2	1	11	7	8
9	Wolverhampton	5	2	2	1	13	10	8
10	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
11	Wrexham	5	1	3	1	6	4	6
12	Norwich	5	2	0	3	8	8	6
13	Stoke	5	2	0	3	8	9	6
14	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
15	Sheff Utd	5	1	3	1	6	7	6
16	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
17	Lincoln City	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
17	Watford	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
19	Southampton	5	2	2	1	11	6	4
20	Derby	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
21	Bolton	5	1	1	3	4	9	4
22	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	6	9	3
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	5	10	3
24	Burnley	5	0	2	3	6	12	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southampton	Bristol City
Birmingham	1-1 D	2-2 D
Millwall	5-1 W	0-2 L
Stoke	3-1 W	2-0 W
Preston	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southampton

DDWDDLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	Millwall England Championship	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
22/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	3-1	4	8	W
16/08	Watford England Championship	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
12/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	8	D
09/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/05	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
28/04	Ipswich England Championship	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
21/04	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	6	D

Bristol City

DLDLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Burnley England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
01/09	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
29/08	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/08	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/05	Stoke England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
25/04	Birmingham England Championship	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/04	Southampton England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
18/04	Norwich England Championship	1-0	2-4	2	2	L
11/04	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Bristol City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (58%). Probabilities: Southampton 58%, draw 23%, Bristol City 19%.

How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Bristol City?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Southampton 2.04 · Bristol City 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Bristol City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.