Football · England Championship · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Norwich
Team pages: Middlesbrough · Norwich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Middlesbrough1.81
Norwich1.13
1X2
Middlesbrough
Draw
Norwich
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Middlesbrough
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Norwich
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough
4–2–0
Norwich
(6 last)
- Middlesbrough1-0Norwich
- Norwich1-2Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough0-0Norwich
- Norwich3-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough3-1Norwich
- Norwich1-2Middlesbrough
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1570 · Norwich 1504
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1570 vs 1504).
- H2H favours Middlesbrough: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Middlesbrough | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.4 | 3.1 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 4–2–0 Norwich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Norwich |
| 23/08/25 England Championship | Norwich | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Middlesbrough |
| 26/04/25 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Norwich |
| 27/10/24 England Championship | Norwich | 3-3 HT 1-3 | Middlesbrough |
| 06/03/24 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Norwich |
| 24/10/23 England Championship | Norwich | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
Standings · England Championship
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | West Ham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Wrexham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Norwich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 13 | Stoke | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 | Watford | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 19 | Southampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Bolton | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 23 | Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Middlesbrough | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| West Brom | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Hull | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Middlesbrough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Burnley England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Wrexham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Norwich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Burnley England Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | Derby England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (52%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 52%, draw 25%, Norwich 23%.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Middlesbrough 1.81 · Norwich 1.13), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.