Football · England Championship · 05/09, 21:00
Prediction: Swansea vs Wrexham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Swansea1.22
Wrexham1.16
1X2
Swansea
Draw
Wrexham
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Swansea
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Wrexham
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swansea
1–1
Wrexham
(2 last)
- Wrexham2-0Swansea
- Swansea2-1Wrexham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swansea 1555 · Wrexham 1481
| Swansea | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea (rating 1555 vs 1481).
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swansea | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.4 | 1.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 1–0–1 Wrexham
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 England Championship | Wrexham | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 19/12/25 England Championship | Swansea | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Wrexham |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Swansea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Millwall | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | West Brom | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Watford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Bolton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Sheff Utd | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Norwich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Portsmouth | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Southampton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | West Ham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 | Derby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 22 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 23 | Preston | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 | Stoke | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swansea | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Southampton | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Middlesbrough | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Leicester England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | D |
Wrexham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Watford England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 26/04 | Coventry England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Stoke England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | West Brom England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swansea vs Wrexham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swansea win (37%). Probabilities: Swansea 37%, draw 30%, Wrexham 34%.
How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Wrexham?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Swansea 1.22 · Wrexham 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Wrexham?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.