Football · England Championship · 15/09, 20:45
Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Millwall
Team pages: Middlesbrough · Millwall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Middlesbrough1.91
Millwall0.94
1X2
Middlesbrough
Draw
Millwall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Middlesbrough
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Millwall
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough
3–3
Millwall
(6 last)
- Middlesbrough1-2Millwall
- Millwall0-3Middlesbrough
- Millwall1-0Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-0Millwall
- Millwall1-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough0-1Millwall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1559 · Millwall 1499
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1559 vs 1499).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Middlesbrough | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 3.7 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 3–0–3 Millwall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Millwall |
| 16/08/25 England Championship | Millwall | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
| 12/04/25 England Championship | Millwall | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
| 14/12/24 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Millwall |
| 13/01/24 England Championship | Millwall | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Middlesbrough |
| 05/08/23 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Millwall |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Stoke | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Sheff Utd | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Middlesbrough | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 4-3 W | 3-0 W |
| Blackburn | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Hull | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Southampton | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Wrexham | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Middlesbrough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Norwich England Championship |
3-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Burnley England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Wrexham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 24/04 | Leicester England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (59%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 59%, draw 23%, Millwall 17%.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Middlesbrough 1.91 · Millwall 0.94), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.