Football · England Championship · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
Team pages: Birmingham · Middlesbrough
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Birmingham1.42
Middlesbrough1.6
1X2
Birmingham
Draw
Middlesbrough
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Middlesbrough
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birmingham
0–6
Middlesbrough
(6 last)
- Birmingham1-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough2-1Birmingham
- Birmingham0-1Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-0Birmingham
- Birmingham1-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-0Birmingham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birmingham 1532 · Middlesbrough 1559
| Birmingham | Draw | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Middlesbrough: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 0–0–6 Middlesbrough
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/26 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Middlesbrough |
| 08/11/25 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Birmingham |
| 12/03/24 England Championship | Birmingham | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Middlesbrough |
| 21/10/23 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Birmingham |
| 02/01/23 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
| 05/10/22 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Birmingham |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Stoke | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Sheff Utd | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birmingham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 1-2 L | 4-3 W |
| Southampton | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Wrexham | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Derby England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Norwich England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Preston England Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Middlesbrough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Norwich England Championship |
3-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Burnley England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Wrexham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough win (41%). Probabilities: Birmingham 33%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough 41%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Birmingham 1.42 · Middlesbrough 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.