Football · England Championship · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Wrexham vs Southampton

Team pages: Wrexham · Southampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Wrexham1.23

Southampton1.61

1X2

28% 27% 45%

Wrexham Draw Southampton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Wrexham 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLWDDL

Southampton 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Wrexham 0–2 Southampton (2 last)

Wrexham1-5Southampton
Southampton2-1Wrexham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wrexham 1459 · Southampton 1586

	Wrexham	Draw	Southampton
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1459 vs 1586).
H2H favours Southampton: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wrexham	Southampton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.1	1.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.52
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:58 +4’	3.30	3.40	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +170’	3.14	3.52	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wrexham 0–0–2 Southampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 England Championship	Wrexham	1-5 HT 1-2	Southampton
09/08/25 England Championship	Southampton	2-1 HT 0-1	Wrexham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	20	9	14
2	Swansea	7	4	2	1	11	5	14
3	West Brom	7	4	2	1	10	7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	12	8	13
5	QPR	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
6	Charlton	7	3	3	1	6	7	12
7	Southampton	7	4	2	1	18	8	10
8	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	10	9	10
9	Stoke	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
10	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	10	11	10
11	Norwich	7	3	0	4	13	13	9
12	Millwall	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
13	Sheff Utd	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
14	Wolverhampton	5	2	2	1	13	10	8
15	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
16	Lincoln City	6	2	2	2	5	6	8
17	Watford	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
19	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	7	11	7
20	Bolton	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	7	11	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	6	13	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	6	13	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	8	16	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wrexham	Southampton
Swansea	0-0 D	3-1 W
Millwall	3-0 W	5-1 W
Birmingham	1-2 L	1-1 D
Watford	1-1 D	1-2 L
Middlesbrough	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wrexham

WLDDDLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Watford England Championship	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
17/08	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
02/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-2	2-2	6	0	D
26/04	Coventry England Championship	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
21/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Southampton

WDDLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	Millwall England Championship	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
22/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	3-1	4	8	W
16/08	Watford England Championship	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
12/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	8	D
09/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/05	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Southampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Southampton win (45%). Probabilities: Wrexham 28%, draw 27%, Southampton 45%.

How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Southampton?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Wrexham 1.23 · Southampton 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Southampton?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.