Football · England Championship · 19/09, 13:30
Prediction: Stoke vs Sheff Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Stoke1.31
Sheff Utd1.4
1X2
Stoke
Draw
Sheff Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Stoke
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Sheff Utd
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stoke
1–5
Sheff Utd
(6 last)
- Stoke1-2Sheff Utd
- Sheff Utd4-0Stoke
- Stoke0-2Sheff Utd
- Sheff Utd2-0Stoke
- Sheff Utd3-1Stoke
- Stoke3-1Sheff Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stoke 1483 · Sheff Utd 1586
| Stoke | Draw | Sheff Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheff Utd (rating 1483 vs 1586).
- H2H favours Sheff Utd: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stoke | Sheff Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 1–0–5 Sheff Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/25 England Championship | Stoke | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Sheff Utd |
| 06/12/25 England Championship | Sheff Utd | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Stoke |
| 25/04/25 England Championship | Stoke | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sheff Utd |
| 26/10/24 England Championship | Sheff Utd | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Stoke |
| 14/01/23 England Championship | Sheff Utd | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Stoke |
| 08/10/22 England Championship | Stoke | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Sheff Utd |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Stoke | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Sheff Utd | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stoke | Sheff Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Watford | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Cardiff | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Norwich | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Swansea | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sheff Utd (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Charlton England Championship |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Swansea England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 21/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
Sheff Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Derby England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Preston England Championship |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Watford England Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Sheff Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sheff Utd win (38%). Probabilities: Stoke 34%, draw 28%, Sheff Utd 38%.
How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Sheff Utd?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Stoke 1.31 · Sheff Utd 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Sheff Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.