Football · England Championship · 18/09, 21:00

Prediction: Bristol City vs Watford

Team pages: Bristol City · Watford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Bristol City1.85

Watford1.28

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Bristol City Draw Watford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Bristol City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWWWL

Watford 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLLWL

Head-to-head

Bristol City 2–2–2 Watford (6 last)

Bristol City1-2Watford
Bristol City5-1Watford
Watford1-1Bristol City
Bristol City2-1Watford
Watford1-0Bristol City
Bristol City1-1Watford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bristol City 1504 · Watford 1434

	Bristol City	Draw	Watford
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol City (rating 1504 vs 1434).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bristol City	Watford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:10 +3’	1.90	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol City 2–2–2 Watford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 England Championship	Bristol City	1-2 HT 1-1	Watford
10/01/26 England FA Cup	Bristol City	5-1 HT 2-0	Watford
07/11/25 England Championship	Watford	1-1 HT 1-1	Bristol City
05/04/25 England Championship	Bristol City	2-1 HT 2-0	Watford
26/11/24 England Championship	Watford	1-0 HT 0-0	Bristol City
20/01/24 England Championship	Bristol City	1-1 HT 1-1	Watford

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	20	9	14
2	Swansea	7	4	2	1	11	5	14
3	West Brom	7	4	2	1	10	7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	12	8	13
5	QPR	7	3	3	1	8	5	12
6	Charlton	7	3	3	1	6	7	12
7	Southampton	7	4	2	1	18	8	10
8	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	10	9	10
9	Stoke	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
10	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	10	11	10
11	Norwich	7	3	0	4	13	13	9
12	Millwall	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
13	Sheff Utd	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
14	Wolverhampton	5	2	2	1	13	10	8
15	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
16	Lincoln City	6	2	2	2	5	6	8
17	Watford	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
19	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	7	11	7
20	Bolton	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	7	11	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	6	13	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	6	13	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	8	16	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bristol City	Watford
Southampton	1-4 L	2-1 W
Preston	3-1 W	2-1 W
Stoke	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol City (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bristol City

LDLWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-4	5	2	L
05/09	Burnley England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
01/09	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
29/08	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/08	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/05	Stoke England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
25/04	Birmingham England Championship	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/04	Southampton England Championship	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
18/04	Norwich England Championship	1-0	2-4	2	2	L

Watford

LLLWDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
08/09	Preston England Championship	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
05/09	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
01/09	Swansea England Championship	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
29/08	West Ham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Southampton England Championship	2-0	2-1	4	9	W
02/05	Coventry England Championship	0-2	0-4	0	3	L
25/04	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
21/04	West Brom England Championship	0-2	0-3	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bristol City vs Watford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol City win (49%). Probabilities: Bristol City 49%, draw 26%, Watford 25%.

How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Watford?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Bristol City 1.85 · Watford 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Watford?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.