Football · England Championship · 12/09, 13:30

Prediction: Derby vs Birmingham

Team pages: Derby · Birmingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Derby1.13

Birmingham1.38

1X2

30% 29% 42%

Derby Draw Birmingham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Derby 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLWL

Birmingham 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDDWDD

Head-to-head

Derby 2–2–2 Birmingham (6 last)

Derby1-0Birmingham
Birmingham1-1Derby
Derby2-2Birmingham
Birmingham2-0Derby
Derby1-2Birmingham
Birmingham0-4Derby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby 1460 · Birmingham 1578

	Derby	Draw	Birmingham
Our model	29%	29%	41%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1460 vs 1578).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby	Birmingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.9	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.25

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +4’	3.10	3.25	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 2–2–2 Birmingham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Championship	Derby	1-0 HT 1-0	Birmingham
26/12/25 England Championship	Birmingham	1-1 HT 0-1	Derby
30/01/22 England Championship	Derby	2-2 HT 0-1	Birmingham
10/09/21 England Championship	Birmingham	2-0 HT 1-0	Derby
24/04/21 England Championship	Derby	1-2 HT 1-0	Birmingham
29/12/20 England Championship	Birmingham	0-4 HT 0-3	Derby

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	5	3	2	0	7	1	11
2	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
3	QPR	5	3	1	1	7	4	10
4	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
5	West Brom	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
6	Charlton	5	3	1	1	6	7	10
7	Millwall	5	3	0	2	10	8	9
8	West Ham	5	2	2	1	11	7	8
9	Wolverhampton	5	2	2	1	13	10	8
10	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
11	Wrexham	5	1	3	1	6	4	6
12	Norwich	5	2	0	3	8	8	6
13	Stoke	5	2	0	3	8	9	6
14	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
15	Sheff Utd	5	1	3	1	6	7	6
16	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
17	Lincoln City	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
17	Watford	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
19	Southampton	5	2	2	1	11	6	4
20	Derby	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
21	Bolton	5	1	1	3	4	9	4
22	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	6	9	3
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	5	10	3
24	Burnley	5	0	2	3	6	12	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby	Birmingham
Portsmouth	2-0 W	1-1 D
Sheff Utd	1-2 L	0-0 D
Southampton	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby

LWLWLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
01/09	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
29/08	Swansea England Championship	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
22/08	Cardiff England Championship	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
15/08	Charlton England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
02/05	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
25/04	QPR England Championship	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
21/04	Norwich England Championship	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
18/04	Oxford Utd England Championship	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
11/04	Southampton England Championship	1-0	1-2	2	3	L

Birmingham

WDWWDDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
01/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
28/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
22/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
15/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
02/05	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
25/04	Bristol City England Championship	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
22/04	Preston England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
18/04	Hull England Championship	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
12/04	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby vs Birmingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birmingham win (42%). Probabilities: Derby 30%, draw 29%, Birmingham 42%.

How many goals are expected in Derby vs Birmingham?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Derby 1.13 · Birmingham 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby vs Birmingham?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.