Football · England Championship · 13/10, 21:00
Prediction: Birmingham vs Preston
Team pages: Birmingham · Preston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Birmingham1.91
Preston0.96
1X2
Birmingham
Draw
Preston
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Preston
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birmingham
4–2
Preston
(6 last)
- Birmingham2-1Preston
- Preston0-1Birmingham
- Birmingham1-0Preston
- Preston2-1Birmingham
- Birmingham1-2Preston
- Preston0-1Birmingham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birmingham 1542 · Preston 1382
| Birmingham | Draw | Preston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1542 vs 1382).
- H2H favours Birmingham: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.6 | 2.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 4–0–2 Preston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 England Championship | Birmingham | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Preston |
| 21/10/25 England Championship | Preston | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Birmingham |
| 01/04/24 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Preston |
| 19/09/23 England Championship | Preston | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Birmingham |
| 21/01/23 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Preston |
| 03/09/22 England Championship | Preston | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Birmingham |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 11 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Sheff Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 16 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birmingham | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Southampton | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Bristol City | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Birmingham (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | West Brom England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Derby England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Norwich England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
Preston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | QPR England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Bolton England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs Preston?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham win (58%). Probabilities: Birmingham 58%, draw 25%, Preston 17%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Preston?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Birmingham 1.91 · Preston 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Preston?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.