Football · England Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Wrexham vs Preston

Team pages: Wrexham · Preston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Wrexham1.76

Preston1

1X2

54% 25% 20%

Wrexham Draw Preston

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wrexham 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLWDDLWD

Preston 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLDL

Head-to-head

Wrexham 2–1–0 Preston (3 last)

Wrexham2-1Preston
Preston1-1Wrexham
Preston2-3Wrexham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wrexham 1506 · Preston 1374

	Wrexham	Draw	Preston
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wrexham (rating 1506 vs 1374).
H2H favours Wrexham: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wrexham	Preston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +40’	1.70	3.70	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wrexham 2–1–0 Preston

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/12/25 England Championship	Wrexham	2-1 HT 1-0	Preston
06/12/25 England Championship	Preston	1-1 HT 0-1	Wrexham
26/08/25 England EFL Cup	Preston	2-3 HT 2-1	Wrexham

Standings · England Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15	7	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17	12	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23	12	16
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15	13	16
5	Wolverhampton	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11	8	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
14	Sheff Utd	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10	13	11
16	Lincoln City	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17	19	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	9	11	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11	14	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13	17	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8	15	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wrexham	Preston
Southampton	2-1 W	1-3 L
Millwall	3-0 W	0-1 L
Watford	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Wrexham (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wrexham

DDDLWDDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Southampton England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Watford England Championship	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/08	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
02/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-2	2-2	6	0	D

Preston

LLLLLWLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	QPR England Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
12/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	16	2	L
08/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Blackburn England Championship	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
01/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
29/08	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Bolton England Championship	0-2	1-2	2	5	L
02/05	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-3	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Preston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wrexham win (54%). Probabilities: Wrexham 54%, draw 25%, Preston 20%.

How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Preston?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Wrexham 1.76 · Preston 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Preston?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.