Football · England Championship · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Derby vs Stoke
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Derby1.39
Stoke1.37
1X2
Derby
Draw
Stoke
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Derby
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Stoke
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derby
3–1–2
Stoke
(6 last)
- Derby2-0Stoke
- Stoke3-1Derby
- Derby0-0Stoke
- Stoke2-1Derby
- Derby3-0Stoke
- Stoke1-2Derby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derby 1450 · Stoke 1496
| Derby | Draw | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stoke (rating 1450 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Derby: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derby | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 5.7 | 3.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 3–1–2 Stoke
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England Championship | Derby | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 09/08/25 England Championship | Stoke | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 03/05/25 England Championship | Derby | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 02/11/24 England Championship | Stoke | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Derby |
| 22/07/23 Club Friendly List | Derby | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Stoke |
| 30/12/21 England Championship | Stoke | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Derby |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheff Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derby | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Cardiff | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Charlton | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Sheff Utd | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Stoke (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Charlton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Charlton England Championship |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Swansea England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derby vs Stoke?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby win (36%). Probabilities: Derby 36%, draw 28%, Stoke 35%.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Stoke?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Derby 1.39 · Stoke 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.