Football · England Championship · 23/10, 21:00

Prediction: Bolton vs Middlesbrough

Team pages: Bolton · Middlesbrough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Bolton1.21

Middlesbrough2.04

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Bolton Draw Middlesbrough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Bolton 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWWLWD

Middlesbrough 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDDWWD

Head-to-head

Bolton 0–6 Middlesbrough (6 last)

Middlesbrough3-0Bolton
Bolton1-3Middlesbrough
Bolton0-2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2-0Bolton
Middlesbrough2-0Bolton
Bolton0-3Middlesbrough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bolton 1479 · Middlesbrough 1551

	Bolton	Draw	Middlesbrough
Our model	21%	23%	55%
Market	21%	23%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1479 vs 1551).
H2H favours Middlesbrough: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bolton	Middlesbrough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.8	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.35
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.28 ★
2	1.57 → 1.67▲	Pinn 1.69

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:51 +4’	5.00	4.10	1.57
16:32 +15’	4.33▼	4.00▼	1.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +85’	4.23	4.24	1.72
20:10 +45’	4.35▲	4.28▲	1.69▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolton 0–0–6 Middlesbrough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/24 Club Friendly List	Middlesbrough	3-0 HT 0-0	Bolton
29/08/23 England EFL Cup	Bolton	1-3 HT 1-1	Middlesbrough
09/04/19 England Championship	Bolton	0-2 HT 0-2	Middlesbrough
19/09/18 England Championship	Middlesbrough	2-0 HT 1-0	Bolton
26/12/17 England Championship	Middlesbrough	2-0 HT 0-0	Bolton
09/09/17 England Championship	Bolton	0-3 HT 0-1	Middlesbrough

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	16	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	30	12	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	22	16	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	20	11	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	15	12	20
6	Stoke	11	6	1	4	18	16	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	21	10	17
8	Wolverhampton	10	5	2	3	18	15	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	15	12	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	17	16	15
11	Sheff Utd	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	15	16	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	15	18	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	10	15	14
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	9	19	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	18	17	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	10	19	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	17	21	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	16	21	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	9	20	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	9	24	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bolton	Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton	3-1 W	1-0 W
Stoke	1-2 L	3-2 W
Norwich	4-3 W	4-3 W
Cardiff	1-0 W	2-2 D
Millwall	0-4 L	2-2 D
QPR	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bolton

DLLLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Southampton England Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
13/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
10/10	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
20/09	Norwich England Championship	2-2	4-3	2	0	W
12/09	Cardiff England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
08/09	West Ham England Championship	2-2	2-3	4	2	L
05/09	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-4	9	3	L
01/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
29/08	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	14	3	L
22/08	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Middlesbrough

LWDWWDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
13/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
10/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	14	2	D
12/09	Norwich England Championship	3-1	4-3	3	3	W
05/09	QPR England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Burnley England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	West Brom England Championship	0-0	3-1	7	1	W
22/08	Blackburn England Championship	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough win (56%). Probabilities: Bolton 21%, draw 23%, Middlesbrough 56%.

How many goals are expected in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Bolton 1.21 · Middlesbrough 2.04), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.