Football · England Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Birmingham vs QPR

Team pages: Birmingham · QPR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Birmingham1.45

QPR0.98

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Birmingham Draw QPR

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Birmingham 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWDDLWDW

QPR 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLDDDD

Head-to-head

Birmingham 3–1–2 QPR (6 last)

Birmingham1-0QPR
QPR2-1Birmingham
QPR2-1Birmingham
Birmingham0-0QPR
QPR0-1Birmingham
Birmingham2-0QPR

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham 1543 · QPR 1495

	Birmingham	Draw	QPR
Our model	47%	29%	24%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1543 vs 1495).
H2H favours Birmingham: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham	QPR
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.6	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:32 +55’	1.95	3.40	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 3–1–2 QPR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 England Championship	Birmingham	1-0 HT 1-0	QPR
09/12/25 England Championship	QPR	2-1 HT 1-0	Birmingham
29/03/24 England Championship	QPR	2-1 HT 0-0	Birmingham
22/09/23 England Championship	Birmingham	0-0 HT 0-0	QPR
18/03/23 England Championship	QPR	0-1 HT 0-1	Birmingham
28/10/22 England Championship	Birmingham	2-0 HT 2-0	QPR

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15	7	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17	12	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23	12	16
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15	13	16
5	Wolverhampton	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11	8	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
14	Sheff Utd	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10	13	11
16	Lincoln City	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17	19	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	9	11	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11	14	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13	17	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8	15	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birmingham	QPR
West Brom	1-0 W	1-1 D
Middlesbrough	2-2 D	0-1 L
Portsmouth	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Birmingham

DDDWDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	West Brom England Championship	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
19/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
12/09	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/09	Norwich England Championship	0-2	1-2	7	8	L
06/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
01/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
28/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
22/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
02/05	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	1-1	9	4	D

QPR

LWDWWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	West Ham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
12/09	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
05/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
02/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
29/08	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
22/08	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Portsmouth England Championship	3-1	3-1	3	1	W
02/05	Ipswich England Championship	0-2	0-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs QPR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham win (47%). Probabilities: Birmingham 47%, draw 28%, QPR 25%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs QPR?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Birmingham 1.45 · QPR 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham vs QPR?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.