Football · England Championship · 13/10, 21:00

Prediction: Stoke vs Middlesbrough

Team pages: Stoke · Middlesbrough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Stoke1.23

Middlesbrough1.78

1X2

25% 26% 49%

Stoke Draw Middlesbrough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Stoke 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDWWW

Middlesbrough 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWDDW

Head-to-head

Stoke 2–1–3 Middlesbrough (6 last)

Stoke1-2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0-0Stoke
Stoke1-3Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2-0Stoke
Middlesbrough0-5Stoke
Stoke2-0Middlesbrough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stoke 1503 · Middlesbrough 1558

	Stoke	Draw	Middlesbrough
Our model	25%	25%	49%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1503 vs 1558).
H2H favours Middlesbrough: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stoke	Middlesbrough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.5	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.60

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	2.00 → 1.91▼	Pinn 1.95

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:50 +11’	3.40	3.40	2.00
21:52 +6’	3.75▲	3.50▲	1.90▼
12:53 +12’	3.75	3.60▲	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +105’	3.55	4.01	1.92
20:32 +86’	3.48▼	3.98▼	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 2–1–3 Middlesbrough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 England Championship	Stoke	1-2 HT 1-0	Middlesbrough
30/09/25 England Championship	Middlesbrough	0-0 HT 0-0	Stoke
25/02/25 England Championship	Stoke	1-3 HT 1-1	Middlesbrough
28/09/24 England Championship	Middlesbrough	2-0 HT 1-0	Stoke
27/08/24 England EFL Cup	Middlesbrough	0-5 HT 0-1	Stoke
02/03/24 England Championship	Stoke	2-0 HT 1-0	Middlesbrough

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15	7	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17	12	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23	12	16
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15	13	16
5	Wolverhampton	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11	8	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
11	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
12	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
13	Sheff Utd	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10	13	11
15	Lincoln City	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19	10	10
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17	19	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11	14	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13	17	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8	15	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8	16	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stoke	Middlesbrough
Norwich	1-0 W	4-3 W
Wolverhampton	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stoke

LLLLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bolton England Championship	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
19/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
12/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Charlton England Championship	4-0	4-0	5	5	W
01/09	Norwich England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
29/08	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-2	1-4	1	5	L
22/08	Southampton England Championship	1-1	1-3	2	8	L
15/08	Swansea England Championship	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	0-2	15	4	L

Middlesbrough

LWLWDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	14	2	D
12/09	Norwich England Championship	3-1	4-3	3	3	W
05/09	QPR England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Burnley England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	West Brom England Championship	0-0	3-1	7	1	W
22/08	Blackburn England Championship	1-0	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
23/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-1	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Middlesbrough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough win (49%). Probabilities: Stoke 25%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough 49%.

How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Middlesbrough?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Stoke 1.23 · Middlesbrough 1.78), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stoke vs Middlesbrough?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.