Football · England Championship · 14/10, 20:45
Prediction: Norwich vs Southampton
Team pages: Norwich · Southampton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
Norwich1.73
Southampton1.7
1X2
Norwich
Draw
Southampton
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Norwich
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Southampton
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Norwich
1–2–3
Southampton
(6 last)
- Southampton1-0Norwich
- Norwich2-1Southampton
- Norwich0-3Southampton
- Norwich1-1Southampton
- Southampton4-4Norwich
- Southampton2-0Norwich
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norwich 1465 · Southampton 1546
| Norwich | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1465 vs 1546).
- H2H favours Southampton: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.1 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 2.2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norwich 1–2–3 Southampton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 England Championship | Southampton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Norwich |
| 13/12/25 England Championship | Norwich | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Southampton |
| 26/08/25 England EFL Cup | Norwich | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Southampton |
| 01/01/24 England Championship | Norwich | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Southampton |
| 12/08/23 England Championship | Southampton | 4-4 HT 2-3 | Norwich |
| 25/02/22 England Premier League | Southampton | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Norwich |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheff Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norwich | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Middlesbrough | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Birmingham | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Stoke | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Millwall | 0-3 L | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Southampton (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Swansea England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Bolton England Championship |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 05/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Burnley England Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Southampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 08/09 | Swansea England Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Millwall England Championship |
2-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Watford England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 12/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich vs Southampton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich win (38%). Probabilities: Norwich 38%, draw 25%, Southampton 37%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Southampton?
The model expects 3.43 goals (Norwich 1.73 · Southampton 1.7), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Southampton?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.