Football · England Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Wolverhampton vs Watford

Team pages: Wolverhampton · Watford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Wolverhampton2.22

Watford0.84

1X2

68% 20% 12%

Wolverhampton Draw Watford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wolverhampton 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWWLLW

Watford 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Wolverhampton 4–1–1 Watford (6 last)

Wolverhampton4-0Watford
Watford0-2Wolverhampton
Watford2-1Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton2-0Watford
Watford1-2Wolverhampton
Watford2-2Wolverhampton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wolverhampton 1523 · Watford 1424

	Wolverhampton	Draw	Watford
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	68%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wolverhampton (rating 1523 vs 1424).
H2H favours Wolverhampton: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wolverhampton	Watford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.2 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.8	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.05

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +25’	1.36	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wolverhampton 4–1–1 Watford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/22 England Premier League	Wolverhampton	4-0 HT 3-0	Watford
11/09/21 England Premier League	Watford	0-2 HT 0-0	Wolverhampton
01/01/20 England Premier League	Watford	2-1 HT 1-0	Wolverhampton
28/09/19 England Premier League	Wolverhampton	2-0 HT 1-0	Watford
27/04/19 England Premier League	Watford	1-2 HT 0-1	Wolverhampton
07/04/19 England FA Cup	Watford	2-2 HT 0-1	Wolverhampton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	16	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	30	12	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	22	16	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	20	11	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	15	12	20
6	Stoke	11	6	1	4	18	16	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	21	10	17
8	Wolverhampton	10	5	2	3	18	15	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	15	12	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	17	16	15
11	Sheff Utd	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	15	16	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	15	18	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	10	15	14
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	9	19	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	18	17	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	10	19	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	17	21	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	16	21	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	9	20	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	9	24	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wolverhampton	Watford
Burnley	2-1 W	0-4 L
West Brom	1-0 W	0-1 L
West Ham	2-4 L	1-1 D
Stoke	4-1 W	1-2 L
Preston	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Wolverhampton (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wolverhampton

DWWLDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Burnley England Championship	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
13/10	Bolton England Championship	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
10/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
20/09	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
13/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/09	Birmingham England Championship	2-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/09	West Ham England Championship	1-2	2-4	7	3	L
29/08	Stoke England Championship	2-1	4-1	7	5	W
22/08	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
14/08	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	5	4	D

Watford

DDLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Charlton England Championship	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
13/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-4	1-5	1	5	L
10/10	Burnley England Championship	0-3	0-4	6	0	L
18/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
08/09	Preston England Championship	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
05/09	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
01/09	Swansea England Championship	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
29/08	West Ham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wolverhampton vs Watford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wolverhampton win (68%). Probabilities: Wolverhampton 68%, draw 20%, Watford 12%.

How many goals are expected in Wolverhampton vs Watford?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Wolverhampton 2.22 · Watford 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wolverhampton vs Watford?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.