Football · England Championship · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Stoke vs Bristol City
Team pages: Stoke · Bristol City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Stoke1.51
Bristol City1.31
1X2
Stoke
Draw
Bristol City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Stoke
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Bristol City
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stoke
3–1–2
Bristol City
(6 last)
- Bristol City2-0Stoke
- Stoke5-1Bristol City
- Bristol City2-0Stoke
- Stoke2-2Bristol City
- Stoke4-0Bristol City
- Bristol City2-3Stoke
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stoke 1538 · Bristol City 1497
| Stoke | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stoke (rating 1538 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Stoke: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stoke | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 4.7 | 3.2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 3–1–2 Bristol City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 England Championship | Bristol City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Stoke |
| 01/11/25 England Championship | Stoke | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Bristol City |
| 12/02/25 England Championship | Bristol City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Stoke |
| 22/10/24 England Championship | Stoke | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Bristol City |
| 04/05/24 England Championship | Stoke | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Bristol City |
| 30/09/23 England Championship | Bristol City | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Stoke |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheff Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stoke | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Watford | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Charlton | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Southampton | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Stoke (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Derby England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Charlton England Championship |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Bristol City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 10/10 | Charlton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Bristol City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stoke win (41%). Probabilities: Stoke 41%, draw 28%, Bristol City 32%.
How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Bristol City?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Stoke 1.51 · Bristol City 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Bristol City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.