Football · England Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: West Ham vs Southampton

Team pages: West Ham · Southampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

West Ham2.07

Southampton1.23

1X2

56% 23% 21%

West Ham Draw Southampton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

West Ham 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDDWW

Southampton 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

West Ham 3–2–1 Southampton (6 last)

Southampton1-4West Ham
West Ham1-1Southampton
Southampton0-1West Ham
West Ham1-0Southampton
Southampton1-1West Ham
Southampton3-1West Ham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · West Ham 1567 · Southampton 1545

	West Ham	Draw	Southampton
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours West Ham: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	West Ham	Southampton
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.3	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.30 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:54 +34’	1.65	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +27’	1.70	4.30	4.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · West Ham 3–2–1 Southampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/08/26 England EFL Cup	Southampton	1-4 HT 1-1	West Ham
19/04/25 England Premier League	West Ham	1-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
26/12/24 England Premier League	Southampton	0-1 HT 0-0	West Ham
02/04/23 England Premier League	West Ham	1-0 HT 1-0	Southampton
16/10/22 England Premier League	Southampton	1-1 HT 1-0	West Ham
02/03/22 England FA Cup	Southampton	3-1 HT 1-0	West Ham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	16	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	30	12	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	22	16	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	20	11	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	15	12	20
6	Stoke	11	6	1	4	18	16	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	21	10	17
8	Wolverhampton	10	5	2	3	18	15	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	15	12	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	17	16	15
11	Sheff Utd	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	15	16	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	15	18	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	10	15	14
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	9	19	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	18	17	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	10	19	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	17	21	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	16	21	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	9	20	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	9	24	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	West Ham	Southampton
Swansea	1-0 W	3-1 W
Lincoln City	6-0 W	1-1 D
Millwall	2-2 D	5-1 W
Wrexham	6-0 W	1-2 L
Bolton	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: West Ham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

West Ham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Swansea England Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
14/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	6-0	11	4	W
09/10	QPR England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
19/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
11/09	Wrexham England Championship	2-0	6-0	3	1	W
08/09	Bolton England Championship	2-2	3-2	4	2	W
05/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-1	4-2	6	3	W
29/08	Watford England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
22/08	Charlton England Championship	0-1	1-2	7	5	L

Southampton

WWDDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
14/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
19/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	Millwall England Championship	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
22/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in West Ham vs Southampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a West Ham win (56%). Probabilities: West Ham 56%, draw 23%, Southampton 21%.

How many goals are expected in West Ham vs Southampton?

The model expects 3.29 goals (West Ham 2.07 · Southampton 1.23), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in West Ham vs Southampton?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.