Football · England Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: QPR vs Swansea

Team pages: QPR · Swansea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

QPR1.18

Swansea1.08

1X2

38% 30% 33%

QPR Draw Swansea

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

QPR 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDDDWL

Swansea 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

QPR 2–1–3 Swansea (6 last)

QPR1-2Swansea
Swansea0-1QPR
QPR1-2Swansea
Swansea3-0QPR
Swansea0-1QPR
QPR1-1Swansea

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · QPR 1518 · Swansea 1546

	QPR	Draw	Swansea
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Swansea: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	QPR	Swansea
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.44
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.44 ★
2	2.90 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.87

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +13’	2.30	3.25	2.90
17:03 +3’	2.40▲	3.25	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +434’	2.44	3.44	2.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · QPR 2–1–3 Swansea

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 England Championship	QPR	1-2 HT 0-1	Swansea
22/10/25 England Championship	Swansea	0-1 HT 0-1	QPR
21/04/25 England Championship	QPR	1-2 HT 0-1	Swansea
26/12/24 England Championship	Swansea	3-0 HT 3-0	QPR
01/04/24 England Championship	Swansea	0-1 HT 0-0	QPR
19/09/23 England Championship	QPR	1-1 HT 0-1	Swansea

Standings · England Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	16	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	30	12	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	22	16	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	20	11	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	15	12	20
6	Stoke	11	6	1	4	18	16	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	21	10	17
8	Wolverhampton	10	5	2	3	18	15	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	15	12	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	17	16	15
11	Sheff Utd	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	15	16	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	15	18	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	10	15	14
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	9	19	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	18	17	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	10	19	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	17	21	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	16	21	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	9	20	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	9	24	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	QPR	Swansea
Derby	4-1 W	3-0 W
West Ham	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: QPR (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

QPR

DWWLDDDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
14/10	Derby England Championship	3-0	4-1	1	5	W
09/10	West Ham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
12/09	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
05/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
02/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
29/08	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
22/08	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Swansea

DWWDLWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
13/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Norwich England Championship	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/09	Burnley England Championship	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
08/09	Southampton England Championship	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
05/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
01/09	Watford England Championship	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/08	Derby England Championship	2-0	3-0	6	6	W
22/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in QPR vs Swansea?

According to our model, the most likely result is a QPR win (38%). Probabilities: QPR 38%, draw 30%, Swansea 33%.

How many goals are expected in QPR vs Swansea?

The model expects 2.26 goals (QPR 1.18 · Swansea 1.08), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in QPR vs Swansea?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.