Football · England Championship · 14/10, 20:45

Prediction: Portsmouth vs Sheff Utd

Team pages: Portsmouth · Sheff Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Portsmouth1.26

Sheff Utd1.15

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Portsmouth Draw Sheff Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Portsmouth 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLWDD

Sheff Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Portsmouth 0–1–3 Sheff Utd (4 last)

Portsmouth0-1Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd3-0Portsmouth
Sheff Utd2-1Portsmouth
Portsmouth0-0Sheff Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portsmouth 1459 · Sheff Utd 1527

	Portsmouth	Draw	Sheff Utd
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheff Utd (rating 1459 vs 1527).
H2H favours Sheff Utd: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portsmouth	Sheff Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +5’	2.40	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portsmouth 0–1–3 Sheff Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Championship	Portsmouth	0-1 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd
26/11/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	3-0 HT 1-0	Portsmouth
08/02/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	2-1 HT 1-1	Portsmouth
28/09/24 England Championship	Portsmouth	0-0 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15	7	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17	12	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23	12	16
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15	13	16
5	Wolverhampton	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11	8	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
11	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
12	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
13	Sheff Utd	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10	13	11
15	Lincoln City	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19	10	10
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17	19	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11	14	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13	17	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8	15	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8	16	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portsmouth	Sheff Utd
Blackburn	2-2 D	2-1 W
Cardiff	2-0 W	2-2 D
Derby	0-2 L	2-1 W
Lincoln City	3-1 W	3-0 W
Birmingham	1-1 D	0-0 D
Stoke	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sheff Utd (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portsmouth

LWDLWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
12/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
01/09	Derby England Championship	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
29/08	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
22/08	Lincoln City England Championship	2-1	3-1	3	4	W
15/08	QPR England Championship	1-3	1-3	6	1	L
02/05	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/04	Coventry England Championship	0-1	1-5	1	1	L

Sheff Utd

WDDDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
19/09	Stoke England Championship	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
13/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
08/09	Blackburn England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Norwich England Championship	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
01/09	Bolton England Championship	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
29/08	Cardiff England Championship	2-2	2-2	2	4	D
22/08	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
02/05	Derby England Championship	0-1	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Sheff Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portsmouth win (38%). Probabilities: Portsmouth 38%, draw 29%, Sheff Utd 33%.

How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Sheff Utd?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Portsmouth 1.26 · Sheff Utd 1.15), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Sheff Utd?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.