Football · England Championship · 14/10, 20:45
Prediction: QPR vs Derby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
QPR1.64
Derby0.95
1X2
QPR
Draw
Derby
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
QPR
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Derby
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
QPR
3–3
Derby
(6 last)
- QPR2-3Derby
- Derby1-0QPR
- QPR4-0Derby
- Derby2-0QPR
- QPR1-0Derby
- Derby1-2QPR
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · QPR 1494 · Derby 1444
| QPR | Draw | Derby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours QPR (rating 1494 vs 1444).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| QPR | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 1.8 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · QPR 3–0–3 Derby
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England Championship | QPR | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Derby |
| 25/10/25 England Championship | Derby | 1-0 HT 1-0 | QPR |
| 14/02/25 England Championship | QPR | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Derby |
| 05/10/24 England Championship | Derby | 2-0 HT 0-0 | QPR |
| 18/04/22 England Championship | QPR | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 29/11/21 England Championship | Derby | 1-2 HT 1-0 | QPR |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 11 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Sheff Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 16 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | QPR | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| West Brom | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Charlton | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Cardiff | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Portsmouth | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: QPR (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
QPR
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | West Ham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Preston England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | West Brom England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/09 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Bolton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Portsmouth England Championship |
3-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Charlton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in QPR vs Derby?
According to our model, the most likely result is a QPR win (53%). Probabilities: QPR 53%, draw 26%, Derby 21%.
How many goals are expected in QPR vs Derby?
The model expects 2.59 goals (QPR 1.64 · Derby 0.95), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.