Football · England Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bristol City vs Sheff Utd

Team pages: Bristol City · Sheff Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Bristol City1.33

Sheff Utd1.01

1X2

44% 29% 28%

Bristol City Draw Sheff Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bristol City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLLWD

Sheff Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Bristol City 2–1–3 Sheff Utd (6 last)

Bristol City1-0Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd1-4Bristol City
Sheff Utd3-0Bristol City
Bristol City0-3Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd1-1Bristol City
Bristol City1-2Sheff Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bristol City 1537 · Sheff Utd 1519

	Bristol City	Draw	Sheff Utd
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sheff Utd: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bristol City	Sheff Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.1	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +13’	2.10	3.40	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol City 2–1–3 Sheff Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England Championship	Bristol City	1-0 HT 1-0	Sheff Utd
09/08/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-4 HT 1-2	Bristol City
12/05/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	3-0 HT 1-0	Bristol City
08/05/25 England Championship	Bristol City	0-3 HT 0-1	Sheff Utd
11/03/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-1 HT 0-0	Bristol City
05/11/24 England Championship	Bristol City	1-2 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15	7	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17	12	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23	12	16
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15	13	16
5	Wolverhampton	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11	8	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
14	Sheff Utd	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10	13	11
16	Lincoln City	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17	19	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	9	11	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11	14	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13	17	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8	15	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bristol City	Sheff Utd
Lincoln City	0-1 L	3-0 W
Birmingham	2-2 D	0-0 D
Stoke	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bristol City

WLDWWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Charlton England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
18/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
12/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-4	5	2	L
05/09	Burnley England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
01/09	Preston England Championship	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
29/08	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/08	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/05	Stoke England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	4	W

Sheff Utd

WDDDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
19/09	Stoke England Championship	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
13/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
08/09	Blackburn England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Norwich England Championship	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
01/09	Bolton England Championship	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
29/08	Cardiff England Championship	2-2	2-2	2	4	D
22/08	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
02/05	Derby England Championship	0-1	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bristol City vs Sheff Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol City win (44%). Probabilities: Bristol City 44%, draw 29%, Sheff Utd 28%.

How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Sheff Utd?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Bristol City 1.33 · Sheff Utd 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Sheff Utd?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.