Football · England Championship · 17/10, 13:30
Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Team pages: Middlesbrough · Cardiff
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Middlesbrough2.27
Cardiff1.13
1X2
Middlesbrough
Draw
Cardiff
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Middlesbrough
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Cardiff
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough
4–1–1
Cardiff
(6 last)
- Middlesbrough1-1Cardiff
- Cardiff0-2Middlesbrough
- Cardiff1-4Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough2-0Cardiff
- Cardiff1-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough2-3Cardiff
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1554 · Cardiff 1465
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1554 vs 1465).
- H2H favours Middlesbrough: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Middlesbrough | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 2.9 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 4–1–1 Cardiff
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/25 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Cardiff |
| 31/08/24 England Championship | Cardiff | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
| 27/04/24 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Middlesbrough |
| 03/10/23 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Cardiff |
| 11/02/23 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Middlesbrough |
| 13/09/22 England Championship | Middlesbrough | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Cardiff |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Middlesbrough | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| QPR | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Blackburn | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Middlesbrough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | Millwall England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Norwich England Championship |
3-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Burnley England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
Cardiff
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Watford England Championship |
4-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Charlton England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Bolton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 08/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | QPR England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 17/08 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (62%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 62%, draw 21%, Cardiff 17%.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Middlesbrough 2.27 · Cardiff 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.