Prediction: Southampton vs Bolton
Team pages: Southampton · Bolton
| Southampton | Draw | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1548 vs 1501).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southampton | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6 | 2.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.3 |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southampton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Millwall | 5-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Stoke | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Southampton (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 08/09 | Swansea England Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Millwall England Championship |
2-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Watford England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 12/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
Bolton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Norwich England Championship |
2-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/09 | West Ham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-4 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | QPR England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Preston England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Bolton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (66%). Probabilities: Southampton 66%, draw 20%, Bolton 14%.
How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Bolton?
The model expects 3.34 goals (Southampton 2.33 · Bolton 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Bolton?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.