Football · England Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Blackburn vs Wrexham

Team pages: Blackburn · Wrexham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Blackburn1.27

Wrexham1.31

1X2

34% 29% 36%

Blackburn Draw Wrexham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Blackburn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWDWWL

Wrexham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLWDLW

Head-to-head

Blackburn 1–1–1 Wrexham (3 last)

Blackburn0-2Wrexham
Wrexham1-1Blackburn
Blackburn4-1Wrexham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blackburn 1479 · Wrexham 1505

	Blackburn	Draw	Wrexham
Our model	34%	29%	36%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blackburn	Wrexham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.76
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.23 ★
2	2.80 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +7’	2.45	3.20	2.80
17:06 +1’	2.70▲	3.10▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +75’	2.76	3.23	2.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blackburn 1–1–1 Wrexham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 England Championship	Blackburn	0-2 HT 0-2	Wrexham
29/11/25 England Championship	Wrexham	1-1 HT 0-1	Blackburn
29/01/24 England FA Cup	Blackburn	4-1 HT 3-1	Wrexham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	16	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	30	12	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	22	16	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	20	11	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	15	12	20
6	Stoke	11	6	1	4	18	16	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	21	10	17
8	Wolverhampton	10	5	2	3	18	15	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	15	12	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	17	16	15
11	Sheff Utd	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	15	16	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	15	18	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	10	15	14
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	9	19	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	18	17	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	10	19	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	17	21	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	16	21	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	9	20	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	9	24	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blackburn	Wrexham
West Brom	2-3 L	1-2 L
Millwall	3-1 W	3-0 W
Preston	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wrexham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blackburn

WLDLLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	West Brom England Championship	2-1	2-3	4	5	L
13/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
10/10	Cardiff England Championship	2-0	2-1	11	1	W
19/09	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
08/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	1-2	11	6	L
01/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
29/08	QPR England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
22/08	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Wrexham

DLWDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Preston England Championship	2-1	4-1	8	6	W
13/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Southampton England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Watford England Championship	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blackburn vs Wrexham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wrexham win (36%). Probabilities: Blackburn 34%, draw 29%, Wrexham 36%.

How many goals are expected in Blackburn vs Wrexham?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Blackburn 1.27 · Wrexham 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Wrexham?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.