Football · England Championship · 31/10, 16:00
Prediction: Swansea vs Blackburn
Team pages: Swansea · Blackburn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Swansea1.68
Blackburn0.96
1X2
Swansea
Draw
Blackburn
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Swansea
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Blackburn
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swansea
5–1
Blackburn
(6 last)
- Swansea3-1Blackburn
- Blackburn1-2Swansea
- Swansea3-0Blackburn
- Blackburn1-0Swansea
- Swansea2-1Blackburn
- Blackburn0-1Swansea
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swansea 1538 · Blackburn 1498
| Swansea | Draw | Blackburn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea (rating 1538 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Swansea: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swansea | Blackburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 3.3 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 5–0–1 Blackburn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 England Championship | Swansea | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Blackburn |
| 30/09/25 England Championship | Blackburn | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Swansea |
| 22/02/25 England Championship | Swansea | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Blackburn |
| 19/10/24 England Championship | Blackburn | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 02/03/24 England Championship | Swansea | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Blackburn |
| 28/10/23 England Championship | Blackburn | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Swansea |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheff Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swansea | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| QPR | 0-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Millwall | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Lincoln City | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Wrexham | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Blackburn (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | QPR England Championship |
0-4 | 0-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/10 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Norwich England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Burnley England Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
Blackburn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | West Brom England Championship |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/10 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 10/10 | Cardiff England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Millwall England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 08/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Preston England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | QPR England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swansea vs Blackburn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swansea win (53%). Probabilities: Swansea 53%, draw 27%, Blackburn 20%.
How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Blackburn?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Swansea 1.68 · Blackburn 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.