Football · England Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Southampton vs QPR

Team pages: Southampton · QPR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Southampton1.94

QPR1.22

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Southampton Draw QPR

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Southampton 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWWDW

QPR 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Southampton 6–0 QPR (6 last)

Southampton5-0QPR
QPR1-2Southampton
QPR0-1Southampton
Southampton2-1QPR
QPR0-1Southampton
Southampton2-1QPR

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southampton 1589 · QPR 1508

	Southampton	Draw	QPR
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1589 vs 1508).
H2H favours Southampton: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southampton	QPR
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.74
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.08
2	4.75 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.28 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +6’	1.60	4.00	4.75
23:09 +5’	1.73▲	3.90▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +389’	1.72	4.13	4.32
14:38 +23’	1.74▲	4.08▼	4.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 6–0–0 QPR

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England Championship	Southampton	5-0 HT 2-0	QPR
05/11/25 England Championship	QPR	1-2 HT 0-0	Southampton
23/12/23 England Championship	QPR	0-1 HT 0-1	Southampton
26/08/23 England Championship	Southampton	2-1 HT 1-1	QPR
07/02/15 England Premier League	QPR	0-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
27/09/14 England Premier League	Southampton	2-1 HT 0-0	QPR

Standings · England Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27	17	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	32	15	22
4	Wolverhampton	12	6	3	3	20	16	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	16	13	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18	16	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16	15	18
12	Sheff Utd	12	4	4	4	16	15	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	19	20	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12	15	15
15	Lincoln City	12	4	3	5	13	20	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	19	17	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	15	18	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16	23	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	11	18	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	20	22	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17	25	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10	21	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	10	25	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southampton	QPR
West Ham	3-2 W	1-1 D
Swansea	3-1 W	5-0 W
Birmingham	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southampton

WDDWWLWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	West Ham England Championship	3-1	3-2	6	3	W
17/10	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
14/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
19/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	Millwall England Championship	2-1	5-1	8	2	W

QPR

WWLDDDDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Swansea England Championship	4-0	5-0	6	5	W
17/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
14/10	Derby England Championship	3-0	4-1	1	5	W
09/10	West Ham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
12/09	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
05/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
02/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
29/08	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southampton vs QPR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (53%). Probabilities: Southampton 53%, draw 24%, QPR 23%.

How many goals are expected in Southampton vs QPR?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Southampton 1.94 · QPR 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs QPR?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.