Football · England Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Charlton

Team pages: Middlesbrough · Charlton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Middlesbrough2.46

Charlton0.79

1X2

73% 17% 10%

Middlesbrough Draw Charlton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Middlesbrough 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWWDW

Charlton 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLDDLL

Head-to-head

Middlesbrough 4–2 Charlton (6 last)

Middlesbrough0-1Charlton
Charlton1-2Middlesbrough
Charlton0-1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough1-0Charlton
Charlton2-0Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough3-0Charlton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1561 · Charlton 1436

	Middlesbrough	Draw	Charlton
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	74%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1561 vs 1436).
H2H favours Middlesbrough: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Middlesbrough	Charlton
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.25▼	Pinn 1.29
X	5.00 → 5.50▲	Pinn 5.84 ★
2	8.00 → 9.50▲	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +16’	1.30	5.00	8.00
23:10 +4’	1.25▼	5.50▲	9.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +318’	1.29	5.84	8.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 4–0–2 Charlton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 England Championship	Middlesbrough	0-1 HT 0-0	Charlton
09/12/25 England Championship	Charlton	1-2 HT 0-2	Middlesbrough
07/03/20 England Championship	Charlton	0-1 HT 0-1	Middlesbrough
07/12/19 England Championship	Middlesbrough	1-0 HT 1-0	Charlton
13/03/16 England Championship	Charlton	2-0 HT 0-0	Middlesbrough
31/10/15 England Championship	Middlesbrough	3-0 HT 0-0	Charlton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27	17	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	32	15	22
4	Wolverhampton	12	6	3	3	20	16	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	16	13	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18	16	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16	15	18
12	Sheff Utd	12	4	4	4	16	15	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	19	20	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12	15	15
15	Lincoln City	12	4	3	5	13	20	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	19	17	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	15	18	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16	23	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	11	18	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	20	22	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17	25	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10	21	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	10	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Middlesbrough	Charlton
Cardiff	2-2 D	1-3 L
Stoke	3-2 W	0-4 L
Norwich	4-3 W	1-3 L
QPR	1-0 W	0-0 D
Burnley	1-1 D	2-2 D
West Brom	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Middlesbrough

WDWWDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Bolton England Championship	3-1	5-1	12	1	W
17/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
13/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
10/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	14	2	D
12/09	Norwich England Championship	3-1	4-3	3	3	W
05/09	QPR England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Burnley England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	West Brom England Championship	0-0	3-1	7	1	W

Charlton

WDLDDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Norwich England Championship	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
17/10	Watford England Championship	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
13/10	Burnley England Championship	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
10/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-2	1-3	1	8	L
12/09	Portsmouth England Championship	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
09/09	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Stoke England Championship	0-4	0-4	3	5	L
02/09	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
29/08	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (73%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 73%, draw 17%, Charlton 10%.

How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Middlesbrough 2.46 · Charlton 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.