Football · England Championship · 31/10, 16:00
Prediction: Millwall vs Derby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Millwall1.72
Derby0.92
1X2
Millwall
Draw
Derby
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Millwall
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Derby
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Millwall
3–3–0
Derby
(6 last)
- Millwall1-0Derby
- Derby1-1Millwall
- Derby0-1Millwall
- Millwall1-1Derby
- Derby1-2Millwall
- Millwall1-1Derby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Millwall 1460 · Derby 1428
| Millwall | Draw | Derby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Millwall: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Millwall | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 1.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Millwall 3–3–0 Derby
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England Championship | Millwall | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Derby |
| 10/12/25 England Championship | Derby | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Millwall |
| 22/02/25 England Championship | Derby | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Millwall |
| 19/10/24 England Championship | Millwall | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 23/02/22 England Championship | Derby | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Millwall |
| 06/11/21 England Championship | Millwall | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Derby |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheff Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Swansea | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| West Ham | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Wrexham | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 12 | 11 | D |
| 13/10 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Preston England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | West Ham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 11 | 2 | L |
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Stoke England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/10 | QPR England Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Millwall vs Derby?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Millwall win (55%). Probabilities: Millwall 55%, draw 25%, Derby 19%.
How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Derby?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Millwall 1.72 · Derby 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.