Football · England Championship · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Cardiff vs Birmingham
Team pages: Cardiff · Birmingham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.53Total
Cardiff1.77
Birmingham1.75
1X2
Cardiff
Draw
Birmingham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Cardiff
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Birmingham
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cardiff
4–1–1
Birmingham
(6 last)
- Birmingham0-1Cardiff
- Cardiff0-1Birmingham
- Birmingham1-3Cardiff
- Birmingham0-2Cardiff
- Cardiff1-0Birmingham
- Cardiff1-1Birmingham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cardiff 1463 · Birmingham 1539
| Cardiff | Draw | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1463 vs 1539).
- H2H favours Cardiff: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 7 | 2.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff 4–1–1 Birmingham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/24 England Championship | Birmingham | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cardiff |
| 13/12/23 England Championship | Cardiff | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Birmingham |
| 29/08/23 England EFL Cup | Birmingham | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Cardiff |
| 14/02/23 England Championship | Birmingham | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cardiff |
| 13/08/22 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Birmingham |
| 30/04/22 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Birmingham |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheff Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cardiff | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| QPR | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Derby | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Birmingham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/10 | Watford England Championship |
4-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Charlton England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Bolton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 08/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | QPR England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 13/10 | Preston England Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | West Brom England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Derby England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Norwich England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff win (38%). Probabilities: Cardiff 38%, draw 25%, Birmingham 37%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The model expects 3.53 goals (Cardiff 1.77 · Birmingham 1.75), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.