Football · England Championship · 24/10, 13:30
Prediction: Portsmouth vs Millwall
Team pages: Portsmouth · Millwall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Portsmouth1.4
Millwall1.43
1X2
Portsmouth
Draw
Millwall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Portsmouth
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Millwall
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Portsmouth
2–4
Millwall
(6 last)
- Millwall1-3Portsmouth
- Portsmouth3-1Millwall
- Millwall2-1Portsmouth
- Portsmouth0-1Millwall
- Portsmouth0-1Millwall
- Millwall2-1Portsmouth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portsmouth 1520 · Millwall 1449
| Portsmouth | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portsmouth (rating 1520 vs 1449).
- H2H favours Millwall: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portsmouth | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.8 | 3 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portsmouth 2–0–4 Millwall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England Championship | Millwall | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Portsmouth |
| 22/11/25 England Championship | Portsmouth | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Millwall |
| 05/04/25 England Championship | Millwall | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Portsmouth |
| 28/01/25 England Championship | Portsmouth | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Millwall |
| 13/08/24 England EFL Cup | Portsmouth | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Millwall |
| 10/08/21 England EFL Cup | Millwall | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Portsmouth |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheff Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Southampton | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Blackburn | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Lincoln City | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Portsmouth (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portsmouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/10 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 19/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/09 | Derby England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | QPR England Championship |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 12 | 11 | D |
| 13/10 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Preston England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | West Ham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Millwall win (37%). Probabilities: Portsmouth 35%, draw 28%, Millwall 37%.
How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Portsmouth 1.4 · Millwall 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.