Football · England Championship · 24/10, 13:30
Prediction: Sheff Utd vs Derby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Sheff Utd1.64
Derby1.06
1X2
Sheff Utd
Draw
Derby
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sheff Utd
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Derby
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sheff Utd
4–2
Derby
(6 last)
- Derby1-2Sheff Utd
- Sheff Utd1-3Derby
- Derby0-1Sheff Utd
- Sheff Utd1-0Derby
- Derby1-3Sheff Utd
- Derby2-0Sheff Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sheff Utd 1507 · Derby 1434
| Sheff Utd | Draw | Derby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheff Utd (rating 1507 vs 1434).
- H2H favours Sheff Utd: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sheff Utd | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 1.1 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sheff Utd 4–0–2 Derby
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 England Championship | Derby | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Sheff Utd |
| 01/11/25 England Championship | Sheff Utd | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Derby |
| 01/02/25 England Championship | Derby | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sheff Utd |
| 21/09/24 England Championship | Sheff Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 29/07/23 Elite Club Friendlies | Derby | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sheff Utd |
| 15/01/22 England Championship | Derby | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sheff Utd |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheff Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sheff Utd | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Stoke | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Cardiff | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Swansea | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sheff Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/10 | Lincoln City England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 08/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Stoke England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/10 | QPR England Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sheff Utd vs Derby?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sheff Utd win (50%). Probabilities: Sheff Utd 50%, draw 27%, Derby 23%.
How many goals are expected in Sheff Utd vs Derby?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Sheff Utd 1.64 · Derby 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sheff Utd vs Derby?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.