Football · England Championship · 31/10, 16:00
Prediction: Bolton vs Bristol City
Team pages: Bolton · Bristol City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Bolton1.32
Bristol City1.44
1X2
Bolton
Draw
Bristol City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bolton
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Bristol City
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bolton
1–1–4
Bristol City
(6 last)
- Bristol City2-1Bolton
- Bristol City2-1Bolton
- Bolton2-2Bristol City
- Bolton1-0Bristol City
- Bristol City2-0Bolton
- Bristol City6-0Bolton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bolton 1468 · Bristol City 1504
| Bolton | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bristol City: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bolton | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 3 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolton 1–1–4 Bristol City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/19 England FA Cup | Bristol City | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Bolton |
| 12/01/19 England Championship | Bristol City | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Bolton |
| 11/08/18 England Championship | Bolton | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Bristol City |
| 02/02/18 England Championship | Bolton | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bristol City |
| 26/09/17 England Championship | Bristol City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bolton |
| 19/03/16 England Championship | Bristol City | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Bolton |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheff Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bolton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Stoke | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Sheff Utd | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Lincoln City | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bolton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 13/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Norwich England Championship |
2-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/09 | West Ham England Championship |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-4 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 14 | 3 | L |
Bristol City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Stoke England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 10/10 | Charlton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bolton vs Bristol City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol City win (39%). Probabilities: Bolton 33%, draw 28%, Bristol City 39%.
How many goals are expected in Bolton vs Bristol City?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Bolton 1.32 · Bristol City 1.44), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Bristol City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.