Football · England Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Preston vs Southampton

Team pages: Preston · Southampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Preston1.11

Southampton2.15

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Preston Draw Southampton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Preston 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLDL

Southampton 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Preston 1–1–3 Southampton (5 last)

Preston1-3Southampton
Southampton0-2Preston
Southampton3-0Preston
Preston2-2Southampton
Preston1-3Southampton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston 1406 · Southampton 1589

	Preston	Draw	Southampton
Our model	18%	22%	60%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1406 vs 1589).
H2H favours Southampton: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston	Southampton
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.20

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +4’	5.25	4.20	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston 1–1–3 Southampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 England Championship	Preston	1-3 HT 0-1	Southampton
01/11/25 England Championship	Southampton	0-2 HT 0-1	Preston
16/04/24 England Championship	Southampton	3-0 HT 3-0	Preston
25/10/23 England Championship	Preston	2-2 HT 0-1	Southampton
20/07/19 Elite Club Friendlies	Preston	1-3 HT 1-2	Southampton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston	Southampton
Wrexham	1-4 L	1-2 L
Birmingham	0-4 L	1-1 D
QPR	2-2 D	4-1 W
Lincoln City	0-1 L	1-1 D
Bristol City	1-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Preston

LWLLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Stoke England Championship	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
24/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
17/10	Wrexham England Championship	1-2	1-4	2	6	L
13/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-3	0-4	3	3	L
10/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	QPR England Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
12/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	16	2	L
08/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Blackburn England Championship	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
01/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	1-3	5	2	L

Southampton

DDWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	QPR England Championship	1-0	4-1	9	3	W
24/10	West Ham England Championship	3-1	3-2	6	3	W
17/10	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
14/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
19/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston vs Southampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Southampton win (60%). Probabilities: Preston 18%, draw 22%, Southampton 60%.

How many goals are expected in Preston vs Southampton?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Preston 1.11 · Southampton 2.15), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston vs Southampton?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.